Saturday, March 1, 2008

WE GIVE YOU THE RESULTS SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO SPEND 50 CENTS ON A NEWSPAPER

Ladies and gentlemen, no one is so presumptuous as to tell you who will win before the fact. Except me.

This is the post you've been holding your bladder for. You've put off grocery shopping and sex with your special other. Your dog is hungry and your trash is piling up. Okay, here it is: House Death Match 2008 -- Winners and Losers.

TOAST
Doro Olivo
There's nothing wrong with Representative Olivo. She is genuinely nice. But so was Huey McClusky, who she beat to to win the seat. Things above her pay grade just got in the way this year.

Kino Flores
Brass knuckled Valley politics and lots of money usually means ... uh, jail sentences. But in this case, it's just the loss of a House seat. You can't piss off all your friends all of the time and hold onto power.

Kevin Bailey
There is probably not a single issue on which Billy Clyde and Representative Bailey agree. But we've been friends for two decades, and I'm sorry to see him lose, which he will.

CLOSE TO TOAST
Jerry Madden
This is a strange race. His opponent, Jon Cole, has run a stealthy campaign and is only 14 years old old. But it looks like he's winning. Bye bye Jerry.

Juan Escobar
South Texas politics are hard to predict, but Representative Escobar likely goes down. SPI dentist Tara Rios Ybarra has a pretty good organization, plenty of money and, well, her opponent is Juan Escobar.

Thomas Latham
Like most of you people out there, I fixate on the Balch Springs political scene. Latham beat Elvira Reyna, who now endorses Latham in his contest against former Mesquite Mayor Mike Anderson. I don't think Latham will cross the finish line, but it's a close call.

Nathan Macias
Former New Braunsfeels Mayor Doug Miller should win this race. But then again, no one really thought Carter Casteel would get beat on the last go-round. This one is tough to handicap.

Paul Moreno
This is hard to say, because Billy Clyde has harbored enormous respect for Representative Moreno for a long, long time. But his time has come and gone (it went about a ten years ago, actually). Marisa is the future. She probably wins.

Phil King
When a former school superintendent and mayor runs against you, that spells trouble. When he also has outside support willing to attack you on pocketbook issues, that's really trouble. This won't be a blowout, but Joe Tison looks like he'll take out the chairman of the House Regulated Industries Committee.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Jonathan "Baby Doc" Sibley vs. Charles "Doc" Anderson. My gut tells me Anderson wins, but Jonathan seems to have a better handle on what Waco wants.

Boris Miles vs. Al Edwards. On one hand, I have a fondness for both of these guys. On the other hand, I acknowledge that both are a tad bit crazy. I give a slight advantage to Miles. At least Al gets to be a Super Delegate.

Betty Brown vs. Wade Gent. God and Jesus are pulling for Gent, but it may not be enough. I don't want to seen as taking sides, but a Betty Brown loss would send me dancing in the streets.

NOT IN TROUBLE
Pat Haggerty, Dawnna Dukes, Charlie Geren, Corbin Van Arsdale, Aaron Pena, Delwin Jones, Byron Cook. Good incumbents almost always win.

MYSTERY MEAT
One of these three will lose. I have no clue which one. But every election cycle brings us a little suprise. Will it be ...

Jessica Farrar?
Bill Zedler?
or
Garnet Coleman?

Please leave your predictions in the comments box. Gotta go now. Nice visiting with you.



3 comments:

penny said...

"You can't piss off all your friends all of the time and hold onto power." Is this a forecast of the speaker's race?

MJSamuelson said...

Oh, Billy. I wish I could agree with you about Van Arsdale - but his supporters have been cussed at and spit on while campaigning (so goes the story anyway). That's a bloody race and Fletcher's got The Voice on his side. Scary stuff.

I hope you're very, very wrong about Phil King and Nathan Macias.

you said...

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